The April jobs report is a step in the right direction for homebuyers. It should cause mortgage rates to decline slightly, and it puts 2024 rate cuts more solidly on the table–but the next inflation report will be more significant for the direction of rates.
After three months of hot data, we finally got a soft-landing jobs report. Mortgage rates will decline slightly after today’s weaker than expected labor market data calms fears of inflation accelerating, but ultimately Fed policy will be decided by inflation data.
Every key metric in this report was weaker than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs, down from 315,000 in March and below the 240,000 expected by forecasters. The unemployment rate inched up from 3.8% in March to 3.9% when it was expected to stay steady. And average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% MoM (3.9% YoY), down from 0.3% MoM (4.1% YoY) in March and below expectations of 0.3% MoM (4.0% YoY).
However, we still have little reason to believe a recession is on the horizon as the labor market remains strong. A 175,000 jobs gain still represents solid growth, especially in the context of a monthly average of around 250,000 jobs per month factoring in the previous few months. 3.9% unemployment is historically very low and we wouldn’t need to worry about triggering the Sahm rule, which has historically been predictive of recessions, until we’ve hit an unemployment rate above 4.2% for three consecutive months. And on Tuesday, we learned that the more reliable measure of wage growth, the employment cost index, had wages growing at a very solid 1.2% QoQ in Q1, which was similar to a year ago.
Today’s report helps to put 2024 rate cuts more solidly back on the table after three months of challenging data. The past three months of data had economists worrying about inflation getting stuck or, worse, reaccelerating amidst a still-too-hot labor market. Investors pulled back from expectations of 5-6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year to just 1-2 by mid-April, with some worrying the next policy move by the Fed would be a hike. Today’s data should be a breath of fresh air for both investors and the Fed. Ultimately, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said most recently on Wednesday, barring a rapid deterioration of the labor market, inflation data is what will drive their interest rate decisions. However, today’s report is a promising input for inflation data and should calm some of the worst fears of the last few months. Long term rates are falling and futures markets show that investors are now a bit more hopeful about a September, or even July, rate cut.
For homebuyers, mortgage rates will decline a bit today, but more relief will only come with better inflation data. Anyone in the latter stages of the homebuying process will get a little bit of a break, but big picture, rates are still very high and will remain elevated until there is enough economic data for the Fed to solidify its plans to cut rates.
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