The Fed Confirmed a Rate Cut May Be Coming in September. That Should Help Bring Mortgage Rates Down Slightly By the End of 2024.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters a rate cut may be coming in September, which is in line with market expectations. The unsurprising news isn’t likely to impact mortgage rates in the short term, but the start of the rate-cutting cycle should help push them down gradually throughout the year.

As expected, the Fed held interest rates steady at its July 31 meeting but laid the foundation for rate cuts to start in September. 

The Fed confirmed a potential September rate cut. In a Q&A with reporters, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that “…a reduction in the policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” which is in line with market expectations. He further clarified that starting cuts in September is dependent on the inflation data not turning back up unexpectedly, but he set a rather low bar for incoming data saying that it didn’t necessarily need to improve. And in answering a question on whether the first rate cut would be the first of many, he said he could imagine anything from zero to several cuts. But he rather firmly dismissed the notion of starting with a 50 bps cut, which some who are more worried about labor market deterioration, have floated as a possibility.

One takeaway from the press conference: The Fed is aware of the risks of high interest rates. The Fed’s official statement today and Chair Powell’s opening statement contained no explicit forward guidance, but the Fed is clearly more attuned to the risks of keeping rates high. The only changes to the formal policy statement were to soften the language on inflation risk and place greater attention on both sides of their dual mandate (low inflation and low unemployment). That suggests the Fed is now less worried about high inflation, and more worried about high rates tipping the labor market into a recession.

This is unlikely to impact mortgage rates this week, but their gradual decline should continue. Mortgage rates are unlikely to change much in the coming days, but the Fed’s gradual pivot and the impending start of the rate-cutting cycle signals a slow and gradual decline in the near to medium term. Mortgage rates have already come down from their recent peak in mid-April, and homebuying demand has yet to improve. Some potential homebuyers may be waiting for rates to fall more, and some are spooked by political uncertainty.