The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales.

The median U.S. housing payment has dropped to nearly $250 below its springtime peak as mortgage rates decline. While Redfin agents are reporting a modest uptick in touring, pending home sales are down 5% year over year. 

The median housing payment for U.S. homebuyers has dropped to its lowest level since February as weekly average mortgage rates fall to their lowest level in over a year. The typical buyer’s housing payment was $2,588 during the four weeks ending August 11, nearly $250 below April’s all-time high and up just 1% year over year–the smallest increase in five years. There are also a few other encouraging signs for today’s buyers: The total number of homes for sale is up nearly 20% year over year, and an increasing  share of inventory is growing stale, allowing some buyers the chance to negotiate. Additionally, less than 30% of homes are selling above list price, down from 35% a year ago. 

Despite declining costs and improving inventory, pending home sales have yet to improve: Pending sales are down 5.1% year over year, the biggest decline since November (except the prior 4-week period, when there was a 6.2% decline). There are several reasons buyers aren’t jumping at the chance to take advantage of falling mortgage rates. Although home prices have come down from their July peak, they’re still near record highs. Additionally, some prospective buyers are sitting on the sidelines because of economic and political uncertainty around the presidential election, whether mortgage rates will fall more and whether the U.S. is going to enter an official recession. 

There are a few signs that more house hunters are starting the homebuying process. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. And Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a  measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 10% year over year, but that’s the smallest decline since April. 

“I was hoping more buyers would emerge when mortgage rates started declining. And while house hunting has picked up a bit, the increase isn’t all that significant,” said Brynn Rea, a Redfin Premier agent in Spokane, WA. “Budgets are typically the most important factor for buyers, and homes are still really expensive for a lot of people. A lot of buyers are waiting to see if mortgage rates fall more if and when the Fed cuts interest rates, and to see what happens with the economy and the election later in the year.”

This week’s  CPI report shows that inflation continues to soften, reinforcing the expectation the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, though it’s  unclear by how much. Markets have priced in expectations of aggressive rate cuts. If the Fed doesn’t match those expectations, rates could rise a bit, but if they cut as quickly as markets are hoping–or even faster–mortgage rates have more room to fall. And if falling rates drive up demand, that could push up home prices. 

For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page. 

Leading indicators

Key housing-market data

Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.