A much weaker than expected job market report pushed mortgage rates down to 6.4%, the lowest level since April 2023. The report showed that the Fed may need to accelerate plans for cutting rates as the odds of a recession grow meaningfully higher. The Fed probably should have cut in their meeting earlier this week and may now need to cut by 50 bps in their September meeting.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, barely triggering the Sahm Rule, which has been a perfect predictor of recessions in the past. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at last month’s 4.1% level, but instead rose to its highest level since October 2021. With the 12-month low for the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate being 3.6%, we have now just barely triggered the Sahm Rule—as the 3-month moving average is now 50 bps higher at 4.1%. Of course, similar to the inverted yield curve, which has failed to predict a recession so far this cycle despite being a perfect predictor in the past, the Sahm Rule may not work as usual this time. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out on Wednesday, the Sahm Rule is not a law of nature, but simply a statistical regularity.
Only 114,000 jobs were created in July, underperforming expectations of 175,000 jobs created. The Bureau of Labor Statistics specified that they saw no discernible effects from Hurricane Beryl on their survey results, so this weakness is not attributable to the storm. In addition, May and June data were revised down by a combined 29,000 jobs.
This report signals a potential turning point for the Fed as the soft landing is now in real peril and they will likely need to accelerate their plans for cutting rates. In Wednesday’s meeting, they highlighted the increased risks to the labor market and laid the foundation for the September cut of 25 bps. With today’s data showing that we are now at real risk of a recession, a cut of 50 bps may be necessary. In addition, the decision to not start cutting in July looks, in hindsight, like a potential mistake—especially given recent progress on inflation. The rising unemployment rate may also explain why demand in the real estate market has remained soft in recent months, even as mortgage rates dropped from highs above 7%.
For home buyers and sellers, today’s data points to a more rapid pace of mortgage rate declines than previously expected. The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.62% to 6.4% following the release of the jobs report today. However, economic data is always noisy and this is only one month of data. The Fed will have a hard time looking past this, but they may want more solid evidence from another month of data to avoid panicking.
Updated at 12:20pm ET to reflect latest daily mortgage rate data
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